President-Elect Joseph P. Biden, I am begging you. You must cancel the inauguration ceremonies set for January 20th. It is not safe. The District of Columbia has been compromised, and is at risk for further insurrection.
This doesn’t come from a position of paranoia or conspiracy. It comes from rudimentary risk assessment methodology. There are so many red flags surrounding the inauguration itself, and the fundamental security of the District of Columbia, they cannot be ignored.
Risk #1: Extant Insurrectionist Threats
The attack on the capitol on Jan. 6th was the result of well-coordinated efforts involving thousands of radicals. In the weeks after the election, these individuals have been planning meet-ups, advising on equipment, coordinating timeframes, and discussing tactics. There is clear-and-present information in publicly-accessible social networking sites, forums, and message board channels. This activity has escalated since the 6th, and the focus has now shifted to Inauguration Day. These are extant threats, by individuals still on the loose, or perhaps not involved in the incident on the 6th, but standing by for the next one. As of this writing, there have been less than 60 arrests, yet there were undoubtably more than 60 individuals who broke into the Capitol. The threat is still out there.
Risk #2: Extant Threats of Serious Violence
These are not just threats of mayhem or vandalism. These are threats against the lives of public officials, not just yourself and Vice President Elect Harris, but threats against specific members of Congress, Democrats in general, even against the current Vice President, Mr. Pence. These attackers were equipped with firearms, improvised explosive devices, even police-style temporary restraints. These individuals want to kidnap or kill elected officials, or anyone who supports the Democratic Party, voted for your ticket, or generally opposes their radical agenda.
Risk #3: Failures of Official Security Assessments
It is plainly obvious that the security of the Capitol Building failed. At best, the Capitol Police did not understand the risks associated with the protests occurring in the District on Jan. 6, and were unprepared to meet those challenges. In and of itself, this lack of incorrect security assessment is deeply troubling. Similar to the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, the nation was grossly unprepared. There is no possibility that any of the responsible parties can correct this issue by Jan. 20.
Risk #4: Likely Compromise of the Capitol Police
There is enough anecdotal evidence today to suggest that some officers within the Capitol Police collaborated with the insurrection. There are videos showing police officers opening barricades, standing down from their posts, giving directions to infiltrators, and even taking selfies with trespassers. There have even been reports that off-duty officers of police departments were involved in the trespass. There is not enough time to thoroughly investigate these anecdotes, gather up evidence, have hearings, and take proper disciplinary and criminal action. Perhaps these officers acted appropriately, perhaps we are misinterpreting images and videos. However, in terms of a security assessment, it must be assumed the Capitol Police is compromised until it can be proven otherwise.
Risk #5: Likely Compromise of the U.S. Army Chain of Command
D.C. and Capitol officials, and officials in Maryland and Virginia, have all made statements that the response of the National Guard was slow, even initially refused, when the insurrection began. This suggests serious problems within the Pentagon and the Army. At a minimum, the lack of any staging of National Guard troops in the event that something did occur represents gross negligence of security assessors and of the chain of command. As before, investigations should reveal the truth. In the interim, however, there is reason to mistrust the U.S. military brass to perform their roles to protect the District of Columbia from further violence.
Risk #6: Members of Congress Might Be Collaborators
It is clear some members of Congress actively promoted, inspired, or supported these attacks by repeating claims of election fraud regardless of evidence. Some Senators and House members spoke at the rallies just prior to the violence at the Capitol. These same Members of Congress, and their staffs, receive a number of briefings on security processes in place at the Capitol, within the District, and within the military itself. Each member of Congress who directly advocated for violence; supported conspiracy theories regarding the election, the federal government, or members of Congress; or otherwise provided sympathy or comfort to the insurrectionist enemy, must be considered a risk for leaking security measures and procedures. Again, from a security risk assessment perspective, the entire Congress must be suspect until proven otherwise.
Risk #7: The Command-in-Chief is an Insurrectionist and a Conspirator
President Donald J. Trump has directly influenced these insurrectionists. That much is abundantly clear. This means that the very person who is ultimately responsible for security within the District, and for any U.S. Military support, has encouraged, enabled, and sanctified the violence that occurred in the Capitol on the 6th. Mr. Trump is also currently responsible for your personal safety, and the safety of all who attend the Inauguration in person on the 20th. The people in charge today are his direct appointments, and ultimately take their orders from him. This is the largest risk of all, and puts the entire operation under deep suspicion.
Responsibility Over Messaging
Mr. Biden, in light of all the uncertainty surrounding the security measures extant in the District of Columbia, you must cancel any inauguration proceedings. The U.S. Constitution only requires you to take the Oath of Office. This can be done anywhere. Stay in Delaware, have a small group of trusted witnesses, and broadcast the event on a wide variety of media platforms for public consumption. You must do this.
Some may think this would be an act of cowardice, and would show to the insurrectionists that they have won. I strongly disagree. This is an act of prudence. It is foolishness to walk blindly into an insecure area and declare “bravery”. In the aftermath of 9/11, there was an urge to return life to normal. We responded by locking down airports, calling up troops, and patrolling the skies. Then we declared that “the terrorists have not won.” This is an entirely different situation. The enemy is amongst us, indistinguishable. There are no TSA checkpoints in the way; there are no passports to check. The enemy is within the very citizenry, something I had hoped to never see in my lifetime. There is no level of action that can be taken in the next 11 days to correct the risks I have listed. Canceling the inaugural events would not be cowardice, it would be sensible, and smart, and responsible. It is the only wise choice to make.
This can be messaged properly to the American people. You can be very clear: you cannot guarantee the safety of the attendees because the current occupant of the office is an insurrectionist, and anything he was involved in cannot be trusted at this time. A full investigation across the breadth and depth of the federal government, including the Armed Forces chains of command, must be and will be undertaken during your administration, in order to provide for the security of the country for the next inauguration.
Please, I’m begging you. Cancel any inaugural festivities. Take the oath in a different location, maybe the 1st Delaware Volunteer Infantry Regiment monument in Gettysburg would be appropriate. We’ll understand.
I’d also advise you to not move into the White House for a while, until people you trust can search it thoroughly. But that is a topic for another post.
America In Context 